În aceste zile suntem în perioada de creștere a cazurilor cu test pozitiv pentru SARS-CoV2. Discuțiile se poartă în jurul variantei Omicron, a contagiozității (mult) mai mari a acesteia, și a senzației de gravitate mai redusă a bolii induse de această variantă.
Interesant, creșterea incidenței la noi a venit cu o întârziere de câteva săptămâni după “explozia” din Vest. Precis după “migrația ritualică” de Crăciun. Oh, well!
Interesant, când, înainte de Crăciun, Rafila și gașca se pregăteau să impună prin asumarea răspunderii guvernului un nazipass (deși diluat) pentru a intra în rândul lumii civilizate(!), se întâmplă o convocare la Il Capo în urma căreia toată lumea a răsuflat ușurată. În același timp, s-a calculat cu exactitate data de 15 ianuarie ca find momentul de debut al Valului 5.
Opiniile în general despre Omicron sunt că este destinat(!) terminării pandemiei.
Nu știu. Ceața războiului face dificil de a întrezări realitatea.
Între timp Rusia a aruncat mănușa Occidentului, și Occidentul a declarat că scuipă pe ea. Azi Blinken se întâlnește cu Lavrov pentru a analiza starea mănușii și a scuipăturii.
Nu-mi pot reveni din starea de extaz dată de Elite. Am aflat de ultimele lor performanțe de la AM. TD aruncă și el o privire la magnifica conferință de presă a Șefului la Elite. (memorare) Este interesant de comparat stilul, față de cel al lui The Donald. Gunoiul este mult, și irelevant pentru noi, cu excepția fragmentului despre Rah-Rah. Iată-l:
Q Thank you, Mr. President. Thank you. Your top foreign policy advisors have warned that Russia is now ready to attack Ukraine. But there’s still little unity among European allies about what a package of sanctions against Moscow would look like. If the U.S. and NATO aren’t willing to put troops on the line to defend Ukraine and American allies can’t agree on a sanctions package, hasn’t the U.S. and the West lost nearly all of its leverage over Vladimir Putin?
And given how ineffective sanctions have been in deterring Putin in the past, why should the threat of new sanctions give him pause?
THE PRESIDENT: Well, because he’s never seen sanctions like the ones I promised will be imposed if he moves, number one.
Number two, we’re in a situation where Vladimir Putin is about to — we’ve had very frank discussions, Vladimir Putin and I. And the idea that NATO is not going to be united, I don’t buy. I’ve spoken to every major NATO leader. We’ve had the NATO-Russian summit. We’ve had other — the OSCE has met, et cetera.
And so, I think what you’re going to see is that Russia will be held accountable if it invades. And it depends on what it does. It’s one thing if it’s a minor incursion and then we end up having a fight about what to do and not do, et cetera.
But if they actually do what they’re capable of doing with the forces amassed on the border, it is going to be a disaster for Russia if they further ingra- — invade Ukraine, and that our allies and partners are ready to impose severe costs and significant harm on Russia and the Russian economy.
And, you know, we’re going to fortify our NATO Allies, I told him, on the eastern flank — if, in fact, he does invade. We’re going to — I’ve already shipped over $600 million worth of sophisticated equipment, defensive equipment to the Ukrainians.
The cost of going into Ukraine, in terms of physical loss of life, for the Russians, they’ll — they’ll be able to prevail over time, but it’s going to be heavy, it’s going to be real, and it’s going to be consequential.
In addition to that, Putin has — you know, has a stark choice: He — either de-escalation or diplomacy; confrontation or the consequences.
And, look, I think you’re going to see — for example, everybody talks about how Russia has control over the energy supply that Europe absorbs. Well, guess what? That — that money that they earn from that makes about 45 percent of the economy. I don’t see that as a one-way street. They go ahead and cut it off — it’s like my mother used to say: “You bite your nose off to spite your face.” It’s not like they have all these wonderful choices out there.
I spoke with the Prime Minister of Finland. And, you know, we’re talking about concern on the part of Finland and Sweden about what Russia is doing. The last thing that Russia needs is Finland deciding to change its status. They didn’t say they’re going to do that, but they’re talking about what, in fact, is going on and how outrageous Russia is being.
We’re finding ourselves in a position where I believe you will see that there’ll be severe economic consequences. For example, anything that involves dollar denominations, if they make — if they invade, they’re going to pay; they’re not going — their banks will not be able to deal in dollars.
So there’s — a lot is going to happen.
But here’s the thing: My conversation with Putin — and we’ve been — how can we say it? We have no problem understanding one another. He has no problem understanding me, nor me him. And the direct conversations where I pointed out — I said, “You know, you’ve occupied, before, other countries. But the price has been extremely high. How long? You can go in and, over time, at great loss and economic loss, go in and occupy Ukraine. But how many years? One? Three? Five? Ten? What is that going to take? What toll does that take?” It’s real. It’s consequential.
So, this is not all just a cakewalk for Russia.
Militarily, they have overwhelming superiority, and on — as it relates to Ukraine. But they’ll pay a stiff price — immediately, near term, medium term, and long term — if they do it.
Umm — I’m sorry. Okay. David Sanger, New York Times.
Q Thank you, Mr. President. I wanted to follow up on your answer there about Russia and Ukraine. When you were in Geneva in June, you said to us, about President Putin, “I think the last thing…he wants now is a Cold War.”
Now, since then, of course, you’ve seen him gather these troops — 100,000 troops — around Ukraine. Your Secretary of State said today he thought he could invade at any moment. You’ve seen the cyberattacks. And you’ve seen the demand that he have a sphere of influence in which you would withdraw all American troops and nuclear weapons from what used to be the Soviet bloc.
So, I’m wondering if you still think that the last thing he wants is a Cold War. And has your view of him changed in the past few months? And if it has and he does invade, would your posture be to really move back to the kind of containment policy that you saw so often when you were still in the Senate?
THE PRESIDENT: The answer is that I think he still does not want any full-blown war, number one.
Number two, do I think he’ll test the West, test the United States and NATO as significantly as he can? Yes, I think he will. But I think he’ll pay a serious and dear price for it that he doesn’t think now will cost him what it’s going to cost him. And I think he will regret having done it.
Now, whether or not — I think that — how can I say this in a public forum? I think that he is dealing with what I believe he thinks is the most tragic thing that’s happened to Mother Russia — in that the Berlin Wall came down, the Empire has been lost, the Near Abroad is gone, et cetera. The Soviet Union has been split.
But think about what he has. He has eight time zones, a burning tundra that will not freeze again naturally, a situation where he has a lot of oil and gas, but he is trying to find his place in the world between China and the West.
And so, I’m not so sure that he has — David, I’m not so sure he has — is certain what he’s going to do. My guess is he will move in. He has to do something.
And, by the way, I’ve indicated to him — the two things he said to me that he wants guarantees of it: One is, Ukraine will never be part of NATO. And two, that NATO, or the — there will not be strategic weapons stationed in Ukraine. Well, we could work out something on the second piece (inaudible) what he does along the Russian line as well — or the Russian border, in the European area of Russia.
On the first piece, we have a number of treaties internationally and in Europe that suggest that you get to choose who you want to be with. But the likelihood that Ukraine is going to join NATO in the near term is not very likely, based on much more work they have to do in terms of democracy and a few other things going on there, and whether or not the major allies in the West would vote to bring Ukraine in right now.
So there’s room to work if he wants to do that. But I think, as usual, he’s going to — well, I probably shouldn’t go any further. But I think it will hurt him badly.
Q Mr. President, it sounds like you’re offering some way out here — some off-ramp. And it sounds like what it is, is — at least in the informal assurance — that NATO is not going to take in Ukraine anytime in the next few decades. And it sounds like you’re saying we would never put nuclear weapons there. He also wants us to move all of our nuclear weapons out of Europe and not have troops rotating through the old Soviet Bloc.
Do you think there’s space for there as well?
THE PRESIDENT: No. No, there’s not space for that. We won’t permanently station. But the idea we’re not going to — we’re going to actually increase troop presence in Poland, in Romania, et cetera, if in fact he moves because we have a sacred obligation in Article 5 to defend those countries. They are part of NATO. We don’t have that obligation relative to Ukraine, although we have great concern about what happens in Ukraine.
De remarcat la AM caracterizarea pe care i-o face lui Macron. Sunt absolut de acord!
Anyway. Opinia generală este că dacă Putin se va mișca, o va face după Jocurile Olimpice din China. Și o va face într-un mod pe care nu-l așteptăm. Ceea ce înseamnă că o va face înainte sau în timpul JO?! Sau se va mișca ne-mișcându-se?! Partidul Comunist din Duma Rusă a propus recunoașterea celor două republici rebele. Da, și apoi?! Există posibilitatea unei schimbări de regim în Kiev, un anti-Maidan? Da, dar ce faci cu toți naziștii din Ucraina?! Ce faci cu starea de decrepitudine a societății ucrainiene? Cine o va bugeta?!
BTW, Djokovici a aflat, pe propria expulzare, ce înseamnă să crezi că ești altceva decât house slave. LOL!